Market Sizing

Trade Without Borders: Estimating Export Potential at Speed & Scale

Client

A government-backed institution in the Gulf supporting local businesses and export readiness. They wanted a clearer view of which product categories offered the strongest export potential across the GCC — with a specific focus on one key regional trade corridor.

Client Overview Visual

Problem

The client needed a deep, product-level analysis of export opportunities between two neighboring GCC countries. For each product group, they wanted to understand:

  • Market size in both volume and value
  • Local production vs. import reliance
  • Market drivers and constraints
  • Segmentation and short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts

There was just one catch: almost no reliable data, and a very tight deadline. The work had to rely on mostly secondary sources — and still be reputable, clear, and credible.

Approach

We designed a scalable top-down estimation model anchored in macroeconomic logic — not guesswork.

Here’s how we cracked it:

  • We estimated local production using gross output data by economic segment, then scaled it to product-level detail using trade flow data.
  • We used official HS-to-ISIC code concordance tables to match product categories to economic activities — keeping our data sources tight, our assumptions minimal, and our logic solid.
  • The model respected basic economic truths (e.g., local demand = production + imports - exports) and hard constraints (e.g., a product can’t outsize its sector), making sure every number had a rational boundary.

With the core model humming, we layered on segment-level insights: drivers, constraints, competitive landscapes, and forward-looking opportunity mapping.

Export Opportunity Mapping Visual

Results

We delivered quality at speed. The scalable model meant we could run over 30 product group analyses with only light customization — freeing us up to add real context and insight.

Most importantly, we helped the client move from "no data" to strategic clarity by anchoring everything in macroeconomic principles, not patchwork numbers. It’s a framework they can now expand, reuse, and build on.